Living references

One canonical URL per measured fact, updated in place. Each carries its methodology, sample, and measured history — base-rate facts, not predictions.

• Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones

  On Polymarket, markets with a subjective resolution criterion dispute more than objective ones in both samples (high-volume: 27.4% vs 1.4%; chronological: 1.7% vs 0.6%). Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.

  last material change: 2026-07-10
• Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category

  On Polymarket, dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 5.9%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 38% when it does.

  last material change: 2026-07-10
• Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse

  Of 432 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer — 86.1% just confirmed it.

  last material change: 2026-07-10
• A UMA dispute locks capital ~5 days, whatever the category

  When disputed at UMA, a Polymarket market runs about two resolution cycles regardless of category — an estimated 104–120 hours locked at UMA's ~60-hour cycle cadence (high-volume sample; magnitude is sample-dependent). What varies is how often a category disputes (Geopolitics 35.1% vs Sports 0.4%), so the per-dispute lockup is roughly fixed while the frequency is the real risk.

  last material change: 2026-07-10

Methodology: /methodology.