Resolution Watch · all references · resolution-risk micro-update · living reference · last measured from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11

Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones

On Polymarket, markets with a subjective resolution criterion dispute more than objective ones in both samples (high-volume: 27.4% vs 1.4%; chronological: 1.7% vs 0.6%). Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.

Measured history

Measured values (sample-dependent), not a forecast.
Measured as ofSubjective dispute (volume sample)Objective dispute (volume sample)Sample (n)
27.4%1.4%1516
27.4%1.4%1518

Questions

Do subjective resolution criteria get disputed more than objective ones on Polymarket?

Yes, in both samples. In the high-volume sample, subjective markets disputed 27.4% (of 493) vs 1.4% for objective ones (of 1025); in the chronological sample, 1.7% vs 0.6%. The direction is the fact; the magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json

How much does resolution clarity change dispute risk on Polymarket?

Objective, checkable criteria dispute far less than subjective ones: 1.4% vs 27.4% in the high-volume sample (of 1025 and 493 markets), 0.6% vs 1.7% in the chronological one. Direction is robust across samples; magnitude is not. Descriptive base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json

Data & API: polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json · methodology at /methodology. This is a base-rate fact (provenance in the header), not a prediction of any single market.