Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones
On Polymarket, markets with a subjective resolution criterion dispute more than objective ones in both samples (high-volume: 27.4% vs 1.4%; chronological: 1.7% vs 0.6%). Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Subjective dispute (volume sample) | Objective dispute (volume sample) | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.4% | 1.4% | 1516 | |
| 27.4% | 1.4% | 1518 |
Questions
Do subjective resolution criteria get disputed more than objective ones on Polymarket?
Yes, in both samples. In the high-volume sample, subjective markets disputed 27.4% (of 493) vs 1.4% for objective ones (of 1025); in the chronological sample, 1.7% vs 0.6%. The direction is the fact; the magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
How much does resolution clarity change dispute risk on Polymarket?
Objective, checkable criteria dispute far less than subjective ones: 1.4% vs 27.4% in the high-volume sample (of 1025 and 493 markets), 0.6% vs 1.7% in the chronological one. Direction is robust across samples; magnitude is not. Descriptive base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json