{
  "title": "Polymarket UMA resolution-risk base rates (dispute × flip × criterion clarity)",
  "source": "x402intel — measured on-chain (Polygon) + Polymarket Gamma. Fact/base-rate, not prediction.",
  "measuredAt": "2026-07-10",
  "methodology": {
    "flip": "eth_getLogs UMA OOv2 DisputePrice (proposal) vs UmaCtfAdapter QuestionResolved (final), paired by questionID=keccak256(ancillaryData). flip = first-cycle proposal != final resolution.",
    "disputeBaseRate": "Polymarket Gamma umaResolutionStatuses, two samples (by volume and chronological) — the absolute rate is sample-dependent; the signal is the relative rank.",
    "deferred": "DVM voter concentration (press-reported ~9 wallets controlling >50% of the UMA vote) — cited, not recomputed."
  },
  "flip": {
    "windowDays": 208,
    "resolvedDisputes": 432,
    "flipped": 60,
    "flipRatePct": 13.9,
    "confirmedPct": 86.1,
    "byCategory": [
      {
        "category": "Sports",
        "flipRatePct": 38,
        "n": 50,
        "note": "rarely disputes but reverses when it does"
      },
      { "category": "Tech/Space", "flipRatePct": 25, "n": 8, "insufficientSample": true },
      { "category": "Crypto", "flipRatePct": 12.5, "n": 8, "insufficientSample": true },
      { "category": "Politics", "flipRatePct": 5.3, "n": 57 },
      {
        "category": "Geopolitics",
        "flipRatePct": 5.9,
        "n": 17,
        "note": "disputes most but rarely reverses"
      }
    ]
  },
  "disputeRate": {
    "note": "Absolute rate varies several-fold between samples; read the RANK. Rank is stable: Geopolitics top, Sports bottom in both.",
    "byCategory": [
      {
        "category": "Geopolitics",
        "highVolumeSamplePct": 35.1,
        "chronologicalSamplePct": 5.1,
        "elevated": true
      },
      { "category": "Politics", "highVolumeSamplePct": 16.1, "chronologicalSamplePct": 1.1 },
      { "category": "Crypto", "highVolumeSamplePct": 7.5, "chronologicalSamplePct": 0.5 },
      { "category": "Sports", "highVolumeSamplePct": 0.4, "chronologicalSamplePct": 0 }
    ]
  },
  "criterionClarity": {
    "note": "Orthogonal to category. Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective; direction robust in both samples, magnitude sample-dependent.",
    "highVolumeSample": {
      "checkableDisputeRatePct": 1.4,
      "subjectiveDisputeRatePct": 27.4,
      "approxRatio": "20x"
    },
    "chronologicalSample": {
      "checkableDisputeRatePct": 0.6,
      "subjectiveDisputeRatePct": 1.7,
      "approxRatio": "3x"
    }
  },
  "api": {
    "resolutionRisk": "GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-risk ($0.20 USDC/call, Base, x402)",
    "resolutionWatchlist": "GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-watchlist ($0.20 USDC/call, Base, x402)"
  }
}