Resolution Watch · all references · resolution-risk micro-update · living reference · last measured on-chain as of 2026-07-10

Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse

Of 432 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer — 86.1% just confirmed it.

Measured history

Measured values (sample-dependent), not a forecast.
Measured as ofFlip rateConfirm rateSample (n)
13.9%86.1%432

Questions

When a Polymarket market is disputed at UMA, how often does the original answer get reversed?

Across 432 resolved disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer — 86.1% just confirmed it. Measured on-chain as of 2026-07-10, this is a base-rate fact, not a prediction of any single market. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json

Is a UMA dispute on Polymarket a reliable signal that the outcome is wrong?

No — across 432 resolved disputes, 86.1% confirmed the original answer and only 13.9% reversed it over ~208 days. A dispute is mostly procedural, not a sign the result is wrong. Base-rate fact measured on-chain as of 2026-07-10, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json

Data & API: polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json · methodology at /methodology. This is a base-rate fact (provenance in the header), not a prediction of any single market.