A UMA dispute locks capital ~5 days, whatever the category
When disputed at UMA, a Polymarket market runs about two resolution cycles regardless of category — an estimated 104–120 hours locked at UMA's ~60-hour cycle cadence (high-volume sample; magnitude is sample-dependent). What varies is how often a category disputes (Geopolitics 35.1% vs Sports 0.4%), so the per-dispute lockup is roughly fixed while the frequency is the real risk.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Est. lockup if disputed (~2 cycles × 60h) | Highest stable-sample dispute rate | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~104–120h (est.) | 35.1% | 1509 | |
| ~104–120h (est.) | 35.1% | 1511 |
Questions
If a Polymarket market gets disputed at UMA, how long is capital locked?
Roughly four to five days, estimated. A disputed market runs about two UMA resolution cycles; at UMA's assumed ~60-hour cadence per cycle that is an estimated 104–120 hours (high-volume sample), and the cycle count is similar whether the market is high-dispute or low-dispute. The hours are modeled from cycles, not an observed freeze; magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
Does the category that disputes most also lock capital longest when it disputes?
No — a disputed market runs a similar number of resolution cycles regardless of category, so the estimated per-dispute lockup (~104–120 hours at ~60h per cycle) is roughly fixed. What differs is frequency: in the high-volume sample the most-disputed stable category runs 35.1% versus 0.4% for the least (higher-rate categories like Tech/Space are excluded as small-sample), so their unconditional average lock is higher. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-11, not a prediction. polym.x402intel.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json